The 2025 New York Mets had one of the best pitching staffs during the season’s first half. It turned the wrong corner when the team caught the injury bug. Almost everyone finished their season poorly, except Clay Holmes and Nolan McLean. Going into 2026, it seems they’re the only arms fans trust. 

David Stearns emphasized that run prevention is something he wants to improve upon next season. If they retain Pete Alonso, their offense should have enough firepower to rebound after a disappointing season. With him, Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and the emergence of Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez, they should be good in the run-scoring department. Nevertheless, you can score as many runs, but if you let up more runs, you’re doomed. 

What could the Mets rotation look like next season? 

McLean and Holmes will obviously play pivotal roles in the starting rotation. David Peterson, Sean Manaea, and Kodai Senga are question marks. Brandon Sproat showed flashes that he can be a quality arm, but it remains to be seen which level he’ll begin at in 2026. Jonah Tong will most likely start next season in AAA. 

Stearns has plenty of options for 2026. He could entrust that his current group of starters bounce back. Manaea missed Spring Training and came back in the second half pitching with loose bodies in his throwing arm. Peterson held a 2.98 ERA after his 22nd start of 2025. The 2025 All-Star fell apart in his last eight starts, possibly due to pitching more innings than he ever has in his six-year career. Senga looked like a Cy-Young candidate before a hamstring injury, pitching to a 1.39 ERA across his first 14 starts. He allowed 26 runs in his last eight starts and was even demoted to AAA. 

Peterson will likely start the year in the rotation. He seems like a lock, along with McLean and Holmes. The lefty pitched stellar in 2024 and followed it up by being the Mets’ most reliable arm for the majority of the season. It would be foolish to give up on Peterson after just eight bad starts to end the year. Manaea was handed a three-year/$75M contract last offseason. New York will probably want to give him another chance to rebound. 

Departing ways with Senga seems quite realistic. His trade value heading into the offseason is still there. He’s on a relatively fair contract and holds a career 3.00 ERA. They’d take a major risk retaining the 2023 All-Star, as his trade value could plummet with a few bad starts to begin 2026. That leaves Stearns with two locks, three question marks, and one improbable. If they part ways with Senga, Stearns has to look for another starter in the trade market, or the free agent market. Let’s dive into a few pitchers he could add.

Go all in: Trade for Detroit Tigers LHP, Tarik Skubal

Zack Scott, former Mets GM, reported the Mets were in on Garrett Crochet last offseason, but couldn’t strike a deal with the Chicago White Sox. This offseason New York could go after a dominant lefty that might be available. Detroit Tigers superstar, Tarik Skubal, has one year left on his contract. 

Detroit could extend him, but they haven’t spent top dollar for a long time. The Tigers’ owner, Chris Ilitch, doesn’t seem 100% committed to handing a massive extension to the soon-to-be two-time Cy Young winner. “Our goal is to win a World Series,” he stated. “I love this group. Whether we do it with this group or it’s another group, we’re going to stay focused on winning a World Series, but this is a huge step for this team…I like this group of guys, and I like the young guys we’ve got coming.” 

Stearns and the Mets have two things going for them. Firstly, they have Steve Cohen who has proved he isn’t afraid to spend. Secondly, they have a loaded farm system. Stearns probably wants to avoid parting ways with someone like McLean, Carson Benge, or Jonah Tong. Everyone else could be on the table though, especially if they have a chance to acquire one of the best pitchers in baseball. With the way aces have helped teams in the postseason, adding Skubal would be a no brainer. He’d instantly put the Mets in championship contention.

Change course: Sign a front-line starter in free agency 

Since Cohen hired Stewrns as President of Baseball Operations, he’s been shy to hand out a long-term deal to starting pitchers. Last offseason, he didn’t make offers to Max Fried, Blake Snell, or Corbin Burnes. Instead, he went after reclamation projects like Frankie Montas, Griffin Canning, and Holmes. He also brought back Manaea on a short-term deal. 

Since those projects didn’t work, he could opt to change course. This offseason, some of the top free agent starters include Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, and Ranger Suárez. All three have entered their 30s and will likely seek a long-term deal. Stearns won’t be too inclined to bring one of them in with that said. 

Keep it consistent: Go after bargain pieces

As mentioned earlier, Stearns’ approach to pitching has been going after low-risk moves. Some free agents that could work out are Adrian Houser, Chris Bassit, and Zack Littel. All three were reliable for their teams in 2025 and could eat up a ton of innings.

After the season the Mets had, bringing in a few guys who could eat innings would be ideal. Outside of Holmes and Peterson, no other pitcher threw over 150 innings for the Mets in 2025. It would make sense for Stearns to sign one of the three mentioned, as he’s shown those are the type of guys he likes in the past. 

2026 Mets rotation outlook

The Mets’ rotation should be better in 2026 than in 2025. With a full season of McLean, they should have a top-of-the-rotation arm in him. Holmes should be able to build off of his successful first season as a starting pitcher. Peterson has a season where he’s pitched over 160 innings, so his body should be built up better to handle a heavy workload in 2026. Manaea is a question mark, but he can’t do any worse than he did in 2025. Now that we have gone over potential additions they could add, let’s take a look at how each situation would make their rotation look. 

Option A: Go all in

1. Tarik Skubal

2. Nolan McLean

3. David Peterson

4. Clay Holmes

5. Sean Manaea

Depth: Brandon Sproat, Christian Scott, Jonah Tong

This option is the best of all three. Skubal gives them a legitimate ace, followed by a potential ace in McLean. Peterson and Holmes could eat up innings, and Manaea is a wild card. 

Option B: Bargain basket

1. Nolan McLean

2. Chris Bassit / Zack Littel / Adrian Houser

3. David Peterson

4. Clay Holmes

5. Sean Manaea

Depth: Brandon Sproat, Christian Scott, Jonah Tong

This could very well end up being what the 2026 rotation looks like. With Stearns’ recent approach, it would make sense to see a rotation look as such. 

Option C: Run it back

1. Nolan McLean

2. David Peterson

3. Clay Holmes

4. Sean Manaea

5. Brandon Sproat

Depth: Kodai Senga, Christian Scott, Jonah Tong

This option is a huge risk. The same rotation didn’t pan out last season, and they’d certainly have to add more depth pieces.